Something Simple and Profitable

Auguse 20, 2006

TimingCube has revised its system, and the revised calls look pretty good.  Of course, this is in hindsight.  On the other hand, it is good that they can learn from their mistakes.  From the TimingCube site we have:

All investment strategies are somehow based on the principle that what happened in the past will happen in the future. The catch is that all models will encounter new market conditions as the markets adjust to counter profitable strategies by the masses. It is the nature of markets. In turn, any successful long-term investment model must include a continuous improvement process to adapt to such new market conditions.

This has certainly been my experience as well.

July 3, 2006

TimingCube has made a number of losing calls recently.  While their long-term record is excellent, recent events have caused me to decide that their signal is not as reliable in this current market as it should be.  It is probably that the relatively flat market, followed by a relatively volatile market, has confused their system into making bad calls.  I will not take a TimingCube signal unless it is confirmed by another independent signal or by my own technical analysis.  They may do better in the future, of course.

January 26, 2004

TimingCube sells a timing system which has been extremely profitable.  The cost is 29.95/month, or 299.95/year.  It is primarily designed to target the Nasdaq 100, but it also works well with the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500.  The system is proprietary, but they list their past trades on the site.  While the signals I use are in some cases more profitable, and in some cases not, you would be hard pressed to do better than they have.

One good thing about the system is that it trades very infrequently - only 10 times since they went "live" on 6/18/2001.  As of January 23, the system, going both long and short at the signal points, returned annualized results of 63.64% trading QQQ, 57.73% trading the Russell 2000, and 28.82% trading SPY.  You get more, if you use margin, of course.

Not bad for only 10 trades.  If you put just $10,000 into each of those things, you get back your subscription price rather quickly.  

That idiot, Scott Burns, who writes for the Dallas Morning News, prides himself on his couch potato portfolios, which trade only once per year.  Over the last 3 years, his two versions of the portfolio have made 2.0% and -0.9%.  I really do not understand how anybody who had done so badly dares to give financial advice.  Of course, those portfolios are designed for people who only have time to trade once per year.  Is there really any such person?  Are there really people who are so pressed for time that they cannot take out a minute or two to check the TimingCube website?  And then trade 10 times since 6/18/2001?  Besides, you do not have to check every day - if the market is going your way, you will not get a signal.

The fact is that the "I don't have the time" stuff is just an excuse.  On the one hand, it keeps the person from taking responsibility, and on the other hand, it makes him appear to be really important - so busy doing important stuff that he cannot manage to invest his money.

And no, I do not get any kind of a kickback for this endorsement.

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