August 2009

August 2009

Sometimes the Signs Say Something About the People Holding Them

August 9, 2009:

Well, it has been a bad time for buildings.

August 12, 2009

Madoff's second in command has pleaded guilty to helping out in the fraud by falsifying records:

Dressed in a gray suit, and occasionally choking back tears, DiPascali told Sullivan he helped Madoff prepare "fictitious" records of stock trades that purportedly documented decades of eerily steady investment gains for thousands of celebrities, charities, financial funds and average investors who lost at least $13 billion in the scam.

"I'm standing here to say that from the early 1990s until December 2008, I helped Bernie Madoff and other people carry out a fraud," DiPascali told Sullivan.

"I knew no trades were happening. I knew what I was doing was criminal. But I did it anyway," said DiPascali, who was charged in a criminal information with helping Madoff and others use "historical" stock trading data to create falsified trading records that deceived investors and regulators.

But this is the really frustrating thing about the market: there is always something that you could have done to make money. If you lost by going long, you could have won by going short, etc. That sort of thinking will drive you crazy.

August 22, 2009

Well, it was a strange week in the market. Monday was a terrible day, and my portfolio suffered more than the averages, since most of the stocks had had a good run-up already, and people were prone to take profits. I did nothing at all, but I should have been putting my remaining cash to work by buying more, particularly at the close. After Monday, the market recovered, as did my portfolio. I have bought a few new things, and most of my holdings have at least a small profit. If Monday is a good day, I will use the opportunity to raise a little cash by selling some things whose charts are not terribly inspiring, and then moving into some small cap stocks whose charts look good.

August 25, 2009

Well, Monday was an up early and down later day, but I did get some good prices on some of the stuff I sold. Not so good for what I bought, but the day did end with a profit of around $3,000, largely because of TRMA and BCRX. BCRX is selling off a bit today, but TRMA is still doing very well.

The religious right is just nuts. Between praying for Obama's death and blaming a tornado on the Evangelical Lutheran Church's decision to ordain non-celibate gays, these guys are just going mad: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fq9G44tomKY http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUHS5u8v1Ck http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALk1z5euBxI Lunatics! It would be just funny except that these people are dangerous, and they have a following.

Meanwhile, these guys did a 3.5 mile swim for the (gay) Stonewall Community Foundation. You have to be in really excellent shape to do that. I used to swim a little over a mile most mornings, but I doubt I could ever have done that swim. Good for these guys!

August 28, 2009

Interesting, in fact downright strange week. I made some money, even on days when the indices were basically flat, and ended the week with a 2% gain. On the other hand, we have SPY and QQQQ up 0.4%, and IWM down 0.17%. The selection algorithms must be working. Friday was, in many respects, a horrible day, since at one point the NASDAQ was up 20 points and I thought that there would be a sustained rally. But everything sold off, and all the indices closed down except for the NASDAQ, which closed up only one point. I wonder if people are worried that something will happen over the weekend, and so maybe if nothing bad happens we will get a rally on Monday.

I have looked into the differences between Most Anchored Momentum and ShortEMA/LongEMA for ranking. Whereas I had thought the latter greatly superior, I am seeing that there is a lot to be said for MAM. With MAM properly configured, for example, there are fewer trades, and the results are comparable. Fewer trades means fewer times for me to feel bad because I did not sell at the high for the day or buy at the low, so there is a definite psychological benefit. It would be interesting to see what happens if you combine the two methods in some way.

Some gym-related commentary. I go to the gym just about every day. I do upper and lower body work on the machines and also some time on the exercise bike. Since I had my knee replaced almost exactly 2 years ago, I have been able to do cardiovascular work on the bike - before it was just too painful. I got somewhat out of shape because I could not exercise properly (well, that is an understatement) and I became a bit overweight. I have lost some weight, but I still need to lose some weight.

But I digress. In earlier days, before portable music players, people actually related to each other at the gym. I made a few friends at the gym in Houston, and also at the YMCA in Silver Spring. But these days, everybody is plugged in. So nobody talks. Today, however, was an exception. I saw this guy - a very good looking and muscular person - walking past my exercise bike as he was leaving the gym. His right knee was bandaged, so I asked him what happened. He actually unplugged himself and we talked! His name is Tom, and he is 25, and he slid into first base and hurt his knee. He likes participating in sports. We actually carried on a conversation! Actually, I had a hard time talking, since I was beginning to pant on the bike. It is good to talk, and it is also good that a 73 year old can actually have a conversation with somebody about 1/3 his age.

The Market Requires Perseverance - September is Coming Along...

August 31, 2009

Exactly two years since I had my right knee replaced. Did a serious workout on the exercise bike. Everything seems to be fine.

Bad day in the market - I lost about half of what I had gained last week, but still finished a bit above most of the averages for the month. We will see what next month brings. Sometimes the market sleeps and sometimes it moves, one way or the other.