May 2009

Men hold a girl as water is thrown on her as part of traditional Easter celebrations during a presentation to the media in Holloko, 100 km (62 miles) east of Budapest, April 9, 2009. Local residents from the village of Holloko, a UNESCO World Heritage Site in northeast Hungary, celebrate Easter with the traditional "watering of the girls", a fertility ritual rooted in Hungary's pre-Christian past. REUTERS/Laszlo Balogh (HUNGARY SOCIETY RELIGION)

Porterhouse sits on the throne after being crowned the winner of the 30th Drake Relays Beautiful Bulldog Contest, Monday, April 20, 2009, in Des Moines, Iowa. The bulldog is owned by Kevin and Erin Bell, of Des Moines, Iowa. The pageant kicks off the Drake Relays festivities at Drake University where a bulldog is the mascot.(AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

May 2, 2009

From Mike Luckovich

Of course, what he really said was to avoid planes, subway cars, trains and other confined spaces if possible.  It was hardly a matter of panic, and I believe that it was good advice.  I would not get on a plane for any reason other than dire necessity at this time.  Certainly, I would not take any risk just in order to take a vacation.  Nobody ever died from not taking a vacation. The travel industry wants you to think that you "need" a vacation, but that is not really true, and besides if you want to take some time off you can stay home and take it easy there.  I am not the only person who thinks Biden might have been right.  Note that there may be significant under-reporting:

A friend living in a New York City suburb took her 12-year-old daughter to her pediatrician, who confirmed the child had Type A flu. Further tests would be needed to find out whether it was swine flu, a subset of Type A. The pediatrician called county health officials, who said they weren't doing subset testing except for patients who either came into contact with a "diagnosed" swine flu victim or with someone who had contact with a known victim.

Now certainly in an urban area, it is easy to be in contact with somebody you have never seen before or since, but who is a swine flu carrier.

May 10, 2009:  Trade the Chart

Want a new job? Laid off from your old job? Here is an exciting new opportunity:

And here is another misleading ad:  Since the newsletter's inception in 2003, the average recommendation (which currently yields 5.5%) has returned more than four percentage points more than the S&P 500. Subscribers receive fresh stock ideas each month, access to all past recommendations, and the team's top seven recommendations for new money now. One might say WOW! that must be a fantastic return!  Well, first, the statement is a little vague.  When was the newsletter's inception?  January 1, 2003?  Some other month?  If you pick January 1, 2003, you can see that SPY, with distributions reinvested, has returned all of 2.2% annually.  If you pick mid-year, the return is just a tad over 1% annually.  In any case, the SPY results are not exactly anything to brag about.  Also, are we talking about four percentage points annually, or over the entire period, or since the stock was recommended?  I might actually want to know, except that I do not exactly care about the newsletter in the first place.  Also, stuff that comes out monthly is not exactly worthwhile for timing your entry point.  A lot can change in a month.

May 13, 2009

Out of just about everything.  The market just turned, and I do not want to hold long into this.  Maybe this is a mistake, or maybe not.  In any case, I am being very conservative.  The only things remaining are there because of the 3-day rule.  They will go tomorrow or the next day.

I have a few reflections on this market.  It had a great run-up, and I got a little of it.  Then the sell-off was particularly dramatic, as might be expected in a bear market rally.  My positions suffered worse than the averages.  This is because I had good open profits in a lot of positions, and people took profits in those positions at the first opportunity do to do.  So what to do about it?  In this market, if you have large profits - say 40% in anything - take half the profit.  This is the opposite of "let your profits run", but it is probably best in this market.

Let's face it, any market in which a stock can make a 30% move in one day either way on no news is not a market that can be traded easily.

David Tice, of Prudent Bear, thinks that the S&P will go to 400.  I think that there will have to be a lot more bad news for that to happen.  Time will tell

May 18, 2009

The Technical Term is Lying Bitch

She was not alone among the Democrats who knew what was going on, of course. The rest appear to be keeping their mouths shut so far, at least. The level of hypocrisy is truly amazing - oh wait! they are politicians - no amount of lying is too much for them. Personally, I think that torture of sub-human terrorist scum is justified if it provides information that saves lives of innocent people.

Too bad the Democratic Party cannot come up with a better leader.

Then there is that Republican Michael Steele - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrE2AqXAV74 - says that we should not have gay marriage because small businesses would then have to pay extra spousal benefits. Well, Steele, why not just pay no benefits for any spouses, or for anybody? Most of the cheap, small-minded little businesses I know about in this area do not pay any benefits at all anyway. If you want benefits, go to work for a large business. Fortunately I have never had to work for a small business, and I am tired of people acting like they are the backbone of the economy when they do so little for their employees.

Democratic hypocrisy, and Republican selfishness treated as a virtue.  Where is the choice?  

May 26, 2009

Well, it appears that my decision to get out of the market may have been a mistake.  The market is up nicely today.  I had quit with $32,547.39 profit, after watching just about that much evaporate in one day.  That is not a healthy market, but it appears that it is still a market to be traded.  I will change my strategy to go into positions in stages, and to take partial profits, if any, on the way.  This should preserve capital.  I will also go into the ETFs with some part of my assets.  I will trade only a part of my assets. I will trade mechanical systems, but with those modifications.

May 29, 2009

I got the following note from Fidelity, about 2 weeks after I closed the account, transferring the funds to Schwab:

During volatile market conditions, it's more important than ever to maintain an investment strategy that you are comfortable with and that matches your goals. Based on the retirement investment planning that you have done with Fidelity, it may be time to revisit your plan. The equity portion of your investments is currently at 0.0% and your current target asset mix suggests that 70.0% may be more appropriate.

How's that for personalized advice? And what generated my "current target asset mix"?  When discount brokers started years ago, they said that the reason their fees were so low was that they did not give advice.  What has changed.

Anyway, I made about 3% this week on the $500,000 I decided to trade.  I missed most of the big move on Tuesday, since it was mostly at the open.  It is a strange, volatile, and nervous market.  There are 2 mechanical systems, one holding 20 stocks and the other holding 6 ETFs or CEFs.  OOPS!  I "overdrew" the $500,000 by $415.94.  I am so ashamed.