April 2009

Pope Condoms:

Isn't Capitalism Wonderful! - One Man's Prohibition is another Man's Business Opportunity

April 9, 2009

A couple of days ago, we celebrated our 37th wedding anniversary.  We went to Morton's Steak House in Bethesda, and spent way too much money, but still it was fun, and the steaks were just wonderful.  Also served was giant asparagus, marinated with balsamic vinegar and grilled, with more balsamic vinegar drizzled on top.  Now when I say giant asparagus, I do mean giant. About a foot long, and an inch in diameter at the thick end.  Amazingly enough, they were extremely tender.  I have never seen such things for sale anywhere, so maybe Morton's has its own giant mutant asparagus farm in some undisclosed location.

Rationalizations and Excuses:  Paper Losses

It amazes me, but in some people's minds, buy and hold is still alive and well.  The level of absolute stupidity, and the rationalizations to support that stupidity are amazing.  The worst of the rationalizations is the concept of a paper loss.  The idea is that you have not lost money unless you sell.  The stock will, doubtless, come back.  So you just have to have faith.  Now of course (1) Some stocks do eventually come back, but this proves nothing.  It just means that if you had sold when the decline began, you would be able to buy more shares for less money when it began to come back.  (2) Some stocks do not come back.  Some time in 2000, I sold SUNW (now JAVA) for something over $100.  Currently the stock is around $6.00, and that is after a reverse 4 for 1 split, but there was a 2 for one split after I sold.  A little but confusing, but the bottom line is that the stock has been a dog.  And now IBM wants to buy it, but instead of infinite gratitude, JAVA management wants a higher price.  They are losers!  Take the money and go get another job, preferably doing something you understand - not making money in computers.  

With respect to mutual funds, it is even more important to sell.  There are funds that did very well in 1999-2000, but have never recovered from the crash that started in March, 2000.  One such fund, VWEGX, which made me a lot of money, and which I sold in mid-March of 2000, has since become another fund, under what circumstances I do not know.  It is now renamed (sold?) EMSMX, and the NAV is $1.42, compared to a high of around $57 when I sold.  Not only that, this fund has never had a year in which it was a leader in performance.  All gone, and left for the losers.  It is not alone.  Take a look at the Strong and PBHG funds, where I had nice profits when I sold.

So the advice "just find some good mutual funds and hold until you retire" is total pernicious nonsense.  It is terrible that people continue to give such advice, and worse that the people who have taken it rationalize the results.

There is no such thing as a permanently good investment.

Be vigilant and watch your investments.  Unfortunately, people do not want to do that.  They want a set it and forget it investment.  Not bloody likely to be profitable long term.

Easter Sunday, April 12, 2009

Off to church in a little while, but first some Easter finery:

Nice tank top, right?  I prefer the arm holes to go a bit lower, but still... if you buy this from Dolce and Gabanna, you get to pay $65.00 for it.  Small price considering their underwear is worn by the Italian Rugby Team.  Too bad the recession has not taken hold in some quarters.  This kind of junk is without excuse.  But I think it would be great to get paid both as a professional rugby player, and also to run around in your underwear.  Nice going, guys.

April 18, 2009

I have been watching Twin Peaks re-runs on CI Network.  I never got to see all the episodes the first time around.  I must say that David Ducovney in drag is very persuasive - downright good looking.  Still, as he remarks, I may be wearing a dress, but I still put my panties on one leg at a time.

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kmv7is_9y-U

Interesting story.  A robber broke into a woman's house, but she overpowered him and made him her sex slave.  

...the woman then allegedly kept the man gagged and handcuffed to a radiator for 48 hours. She is accused of forcing him to take Viagra and forcing him to have sex with her multiple times.

The woman let her prisoner go March 16 and he went to police after seeking treatment for injuries to his genitals.

 Best not to mess with this woman.

April 26, 2009

So what have I been doing in this market?  I am in with about 25% of my investment capital since around the last week of March.  Part is in a 15-stock mechanical system (originally a 10-stock system), and the rest is in small positions in what I believed were decent stocks that will lead us out of this mess.  In general, I have been more or less right about the stocks, with the notable exception of YRCW and possibly CSIQ.  Last Friday I sold a number of those non-mechanical positions, and I will shortly go into the market with another 15-stock mechanical system.  There will be some overlap between the mechanical systems.  I have kept my positions in the financials, such as BAC, and GS.  I am betting that the results of this stress test will be favorable.  I have also kept some favorites, such as AAPL, RIMM, and ISRG.  

I am doing this trading at Schwab, and their download capability is not so great.  So I may or may not publish the results.  A lot of the stuff has to be done by hand.  Possibly it would be good to get Quicken or MS Money.  Schwab's Street Smart Pro is a good interface for trading, however.

April 28, 2009

Well, I am glad I sold what I sold, and I wish I had not kept BAC.  I had hoped that the "stress test" would clear them, but rumor has it that it did not, and they may have to raise new capital.  Then there is the swine flu, about which nothing definitive can be said at this time, except that I should have sold more stuff last Friday.  I feel like Garfield.

Well, this is not mechanical (although it was in the mechanical system), but when BZH reached more than double today, I sold half of the position.  It has gone down a bit since, so I got a good price. Other than taking profits, there is no reason to sell, so think what you will of my action.  Then after hours, ETFC posted bad results, and is down 25%.  

April 29, 2009

Excellent so far, but what do I do now?  I had put off starting the second mechanical system because it would have been traded with unsettled funds.  But I really should have bought yesterday - most of the positions (except ETFC, of course) are up nicely.

April 30, 2009

Did OK this month, but not as well as the averages.  Missing a big one-day move makes a difference.  Still, I am not complaining, although I may open up an ETF-trading system in a different account.  In trading in a non-taxable cash account, the 3-day restriction has to be honored.

Lots of trades - next month there will be less trading.