November 2005

Interesting Engineering Feat in Germany

November 6, 2005

Europe has a war on its hands, and the results are likely to be very grim.  It is amazing to me that even the French, general idiots that they are, have allowed things to get this bad.  There is no reason to have allowed all these Muslim immigrants to come into France, but if they are there, putting them on welfare and in housing projects all together is certainly not a wise move.  But let's hear it from the Minister for Social Cohesion.

What to do? In Paris, while ''youths'' fired on the gendarmerie, burned down a gym and disrupted commuter trains, the French Cabinet split in two, as the ''minister for social cohesion'' (a Cabinet position I hope America never requires) and other colleagues distance themselves from the interior minister, the tough-talking Nicolas Sarkozy who dismissed the rioters as ''scum.'' President Chirac seems to have come down on the side of those who feel the scum's grievances need to be addressed. He called for ''a spirit of dialogue and respect.'' As is the way with the political class, they seem to see the riots as an excellent opportunity to scuttle Sarkozy's presidential ambitions rather than as a call to save the Republic.

A few years back I was criticized for a throwaway observation to the effect that ''I find it easier to be optimistic about the futures of Iraq and Pakistan than, say, Holland or Denmark." But this is why. In defiance of traditional immigration patterns, these young men are less assimilated than their grandparents. French cynics like the prime minister, Dominique de Villepin, have spent the last two years scoffing at the Bush Doctrine: Why, everyone knows Islam and democracy are incompatible. If so, that's less a problem for Iraq or Afghanistan than for France and Belgium.

November 9, 2005

A couple of moderately bad days in the market.  Discouraging, but maybe it will not last.

November 11, 2005

Pat Robertson is at it again.  This time, he objects to the fact that the town of Dover, PA had sense enough to vote the school board out of office for supporting intelligent design.  Maybe disaster will strike, and then God will not help them.

Posting and reading posts at the Motley Food.  Here is one guy who thinks it is risky at all times not to be long the market.  He does not want to miss out, and thinks there is nothing wrong with buying into a declining market - dollar cost averaging is going to fix all that.  Then somebody else who just does not believe in market timing, but wants to know when to get in.  Boggles the mind that people can be so arrogantly wrong on the simplest stuff.

Nasdaq tops:  1/26/2004:  2153.83, 12/30/2004:  2178.34, 8/2/2005:  2218.15, 11/11/2005:  2202.47.  But maybe this last one will not be a top.  If we get to 2240, we will have definitely gotten through resistance.  At least the tops are getting higher.

November 18, 2005

Nasdaq closed yesterday at 2220.46.  That is higher than the last of the tops noted above.  Will it shortly go over my arbitrary target of 2240?  Well, it is the third Friday, and anything can happen.

I dumped ADSK today - bad earnings news and analyst downgrade.  The stock over-reacted, but it is not likely to move up much very soon.

Nice Abs, Particularly After Eating 67 Hamburgers.

Well, they were mini hamburgers.  This guy is, believe it or not, a professional competitive eater.

November 21, 2005

OK - the Nasdaq closed just above 2240, my arbitrarily chosen number.  My account was up about 1.75% today, significantly better than the indices, so I must be doing something right.

Happy Thanksgiving (not one of my dogs)

November 24, 2005

A beautiful memo from Citi that completely explains what their analysts did - and quite possibly still do.

In the 2002 memo, John Hoffman, then global research chief for Citi's Salomon Smith Barney division, advised Salomon Smith Barney CEO Michael Carpenter of the internal view that "implementation and enforcement of clearer and more accurate ratings is in conflict with certain paramount goals of our firm"—namely, maximizing underwriting fees. (The memo was made public in ongoing litigation filed by a Florida law firm, Babbitt Johnson Osborne & LeClainche.)

"When I read it my blood began to boil again," says New York attorney general Eliot Spitzer. "It drove home how crass that whole system was."

From the memo:

However, the research directors feel strongly that implementation and enforcement of clearer and more accurate ratings standards is in conflict with certain paramount goals of the firm. Research analysts have been told repeatedly that the primary goal of the firm is to get our equity underwriting market share ranking up into the top three. This message is reinforced in the investment banking weekly meetings and planning offsites to which research management and analysts are invited. The success of the Platinum Account program and the Equity Task Force initiatives are very dependant on the corporates' positive view of equity research and there is no mystery that this positive view hinges on a favorable stock rating. In contrast, seldom does research management hear from top management about the damage that a confusing or biased rating system has done to our sizable retail business in the form of depreciated assets and lost accounts. And seldom in recent years does research management participate in any retail business sessions.

In other words, screw the retail investors - we want to use research to maximize our investment banking profits.  These people are so despicable that I do not think that they should even be in business.  And are things better now?  Somehow I doubt it.

November 30, 2005

Some moderately bad days - off the highs of a few days earlier.  Still, a decent month.