September 2004

Champion in Disneyland

Gold Medallist Michael Phelps (news - web sites) (R) has a laugh with Minnie Mouse after completing a relay race held at the Typhoon Lagoon wave pool at Walt Disney World in Lake Buena Vista, Florida August 31, 2004. Phelps, Ian Crocker and Lenny Krayzelburg (news - web sites) visited Walt Disney World to kickoff a national tour called 'Disney's Swim with the Stars'. The trio will embark on to 12 cities around the country, including Atlanta, New York city, Baltimore, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Las Vegas, Salt Lake City, Seattle, San Francisco and Anaheim. - Preston Mack/Walt Disney World

Rhetorical Question

Bill Gates on Lower Left

September 7, 2004

Market continues to look good, and I bought a few more stocks.  As the earlier systems age, I may simply take the sells and not the buys.  Meanwhile, I have given up on obscure naming conventions for the systems.  I will just call it "A" followed by the date it was started.  If I get a new list, I will just call it "B", etc.  If I bought it just based on the chart, I will label it "T".  Meanwhile, I am using my judgment when I get a stopped-out stock.  The market has been really jumpy, and it is not necessarily a good thing to take all of the stops.

September 13, 2004

Market looks good, so far.  I am now fully invested.

While I firmly believe that most people can manage their own investing if they are willing to be decisive and to follow some rather simple rules, that belief was shaken by somebody who posted on the Motley Fool.  He had $20,000, and wanted to know if he should invest it all in one fund, or split it between two funds.  Both of the funds he was considering had the same expense ratio.  However, he was worried that if he put $10,000 in one fund and $10,000 in the other fund, he would pay twice as much in expenses as if he just put $20,000 into only one fund.  I think that in addition to an investment advisor he needs a keeper.

This Explains Everything

Every now and then, somebody writes in to a message board and asks if he should pay off the house or invest in "the stock market".  Most of the people who ask this question have no clue about investing, or, to use the correct term, trading.  They have no discipline for trading, no scheme, no plan.  They only think that they should possibly be in "the stock market".  Wrong!  The alternatives have to be more clearly spelled out.  Now, of course, knowing how to pay off the house is easy - you just send in the money if you have it.  Putting money in the market is infinitely more complicated, at least if you expect good returns.

September 16, 2004

Meanwhile, I have a number of stocks to sell, and I do not intend to buy replacements until tomorrow or Monday.  I just want to let things clear out for a while.

September 17, 2004

I now have a little over $200,000 in cash.  Over the weekend, I will quite possibly develop a new system from the most recent lists.  On the other hand, foreign funds and additional Rydex funds are a possibility.

September 20, 2004

I decided to put the cash into stocks - two new systems.  In trading these and other systems, it is sometimes necessary to eliminate, at least temporarily, some stocks.  In one case, the stock was priced at $645 and was very thinly traded. In another case, the stock had moved simply because it was going to be included in an index.  Of course, I could regret those choices...

September 23, 2004

Terrible day yesterday.  As a hedge, I sold RYMKX and put the money into two funds that short.  This is a kind of mild hedge, and I have grave reservations about what I did, since one day does not a trend make.  However, it is September, which is notoriously difficult.

The Way of the Net

I posted something on Salil Gangal's board.  Never mind what.  And I got a reply, which said "Nice to see a familiar face..."  Of course, my face is not on the board. More important, I have no idea who this person is.  Am I getting senile, and have forgotten him?  Did I influence him in some way?  He is hedging, and doing so effectively. Good idea.  You just never know who you influence, for good or bad.  I just hope it is for good.  Or maybe I did not influence him at all - we just have some of the same ideas.

September 26, 2004

Marty Chernard has issued a sell signal.  I do not believe this one, but the two short funds should help things out if he is right.  In any case, things get crazy in the September - October time period.  I would like to see something more unambiguous.  We will see what tomorrow brings.  Several stocks were listed as a sell, and I will sell them and then not replace them with other stocks.  If the market looks bad, I will add to the short funds.  

September 29, 2004

Well, the short hedge was not terribly useful.  Out of that and into more long positions.  Meanwhile, Merrill Lynch has informed me that I am doing too many trades. Their compliance department has identified me as a loss leader.  So I am transferring the account to Ameritrade.  Too bad.  I really like Tim Mickey, the Merrill Lynch representative.  Ameritrade has some good trading tools, and real-time quotes are free if you have a large account or trade frequently.

September 30, 2004

Not a bad month.  However, it would be nice to take more profits than losses.  That worries me.  On the other hand, today when the market was essentially flat, I made about 0.8%.  Not much, but it is better than flat.

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