Could Vice President Biden be right about the swine flu?

Sunday, May 3rd 2009, 4:00 AM

It was the comment that launched a million laughs and got Vice President Biden a trip to the White House woodshed. It also got the President's flack a dose of ridicule for trying to spin Biden's "family" tips for avoiding swine flu.

Yet hold the jokes and consider this: What if Biden was right to warn his family to stay away from planes, trains, classrooms and other crowded spaces? Shouldn't we all give our families the same warning?

Those are inconvenient questions that fly in the face of government assurances Biden is wrong. Businesses and politicians promise it's safe to get on airplanes, go to school and ride the subway. Besides, everyone knows Biden often spouts nonsense.

But even a stopped clock is right twice a day. Maybe this is one of those times.

I say maybe because nobody knows for sure. Ultimately, uncertainty is why Biden gave his family the warning.

The vice president, who suffered a devastating family tragedy 35 years ago, clearly wants to be safe rather than sorry. Can you blame him?

I don't. And I suspect lots of people are thinking the same thing but afraid to say it, including many in government.

Health officials around the world haven't been able to figure out the origin of the outbreak and the ramifications of this new strain. With cases in over a dozen countries, the World Health Organization has declared a pandemic alert.

Yet the organization says "imposing travel restrictions would have very little effect on stopping the virus from spreading, but would be highly disruptive to the global community."

I would be more comforted if it said travel restrictions would have "zero effect" on stopping the spread. What does "very little effect" mean? And frankly, I'm more concerned with my family's safety than disruptions to the "global community."

President Obama himself has noted the high level of uncertainty, including questions of fatality rates. Obama said Friday that scientists are concerned because, "When you have a new strain, then potentially our immune systems can't deal with it as effectively." He noted that fatalities in Mexico involved "relatively young, healthy people," and added, "that's why we're taking it seriously."

But here's another head scratcher. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last Thursday reported only 109 "confirmed" cases in the U.S.

When I asked for the definition of "confirmed," a spokeswoman referred me to the agency's Web site, which says, "A confirmed case of S-OIV infection is defined as a person with an acute febrile respiratory illness with laboratory confirmed S-OIV infection at CDC."

This is a classic Catch-22. The agency says "suspected" or "probable" cases are not counted because they haven't been "confirmed" by the CDC itself.

That's a logic that only government could trust. My final faith was shredded by a harrowing story.

A friend living in a New York City suburb took her 12-year-old daughter to her pediatrician, who confirmed the child had Type A flu. Further tests would be needed to find out whether it was swine flu, a subset of Type A. The pediatrician called county health officials, who said they weren't doing subset testing except for patients who either came into contact with a "diagnosed" swine flu victim or with someone who had contact with a known victim.

My friend and the pediatrician got a similar runaround from Connecticut, where the 12-year-old goes to school. No subset testing, officials said there, unless there were "clusters" or other signs.

The pediatrician nonetheless prescribed Tamiflu and, happily, the 12-year-old showed fast progress.

Meanwhile, the White House said Biden soon would be heading to Europe, but not to the garden spots. He'll visit Bosnia, Serbia, Herzegovina and Kosovo where, presumably, he will keep his family advice to himself.

mgoodwin@nydailynews.com